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Assessment, Vol. 15, No. 1, 104-115 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1073191107307966

A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments

Predictive and Incremental Validity

Jennifer L. Welsh

Lakehead University

Fred Schmidt

Lakehead University Children's Centre Thunder Bay

Lauren McKinnon

Children's Centre Thunder Bay

H. K. Chattha

Lakehead University

Joanna R. Meyers

Lakehead University

Promising new adolescent risk assessment tools are being incorporated into clinical practice but currently possess limited evidence of predictive validity regarding their individual and/or combined use in risk assessments. The current study compares three structured adolescent risk instruments, Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV), for both predictive and incremental validity with respect to general and violent recidivism. Receiver operating characteristic and hierarchical logistic regression analyses revealed that the risk tools predicted general and violent recidivism to varying degrees of accuracy, but the SAVRY offered the most in incremental validity. Clinical implications and future directions for youth risk assessment are discussed.

Key Words: risk assessment • adolescent • recidivism • incremental validity • predictive validity


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