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Assessment
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An Actuarial Model for Assessment of Prison Violence Risk Among Maximum Security Inmates

Mark D. Cunningham

Dallas, Texas, mdc{at}markdcunningham.com

Jon R. Sorensen

Texas A&M University at Prairie View

Thomas J. Reidy

Monterey, California

An experimental scale for the assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates was developed from a logistic regression analysis involving inmates serving parole-eligible terms of varying length (n = 1,503), life-without-parole inmates (n = 960), and death-sentenced inmates who were mainstreamed into the general prison population (n = 132). Records of institutional violent misconduct of these 2,595 inmates were retrospectively examined for an 11-year period (1991 to 2002). Predictors affecting the likelihood of such misconduct included age, type and length of sentence, education, prior prison terms, prior probated sentences, and years served. The scale was modestly successful, as demonstrated by an overall omnibus area under the curve of .719. Double cross-validation demonstrated minimal shrinkage. The authors have termed this experimental scale the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison.

Key Words: prison violence • actuarial • risk assessment • maximum security

Assessment, Vol. 12, No. 1, 40-49 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1073191104272815
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